Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 1.066178 1.250536 1.457226 1.706168 1.997972 2.329329 2.734407
2024-10-13 0.738161 0.969743 1.260077 1.651044 2.164384 2.816389 3.709151
2024-10-20 0.561993 0.800351 1.123916 1.595742 2.267527 3.191879 4.564649
2024-10-27 0.448673 0.682088 1.020011 1.545634 2.344855 3.518389 5.380249
2024-11-03 0.385631 0.620244 0.979309 1.569876 2.520375 3.996774 6.477191
2024-11-10 0.355441 0.601260 0.996652 1.680316 2.838183 4.729715 8.075269
2024-11-17 0.320172 0.567002 0.982374 1.734024 3.067487 5.348275 9.575981
2024-11-24 0.284177 0.524981 0.947453 1.744748 3.221101 5.855739 10.955790
2024-12-01 0.250750 0.481816 0.903240 1.730307 3.324194 6.283391 12.248388
2024-12-08 0.223471 0.445604 0.865804 1.721465 3.433735 6.733601 13.644446
2024-12-15 0.203297 0.419881 0.844041 1.738576 3.593858 7.298469 15.344321
2024-12-22 0.178364 0.380849 0.790626 1.684002 3.600788 7.559105 16.457734
2024-12-29 0.172989 0.382197 0.820073 1.807816 4.002177 8.692996 19.619156
2025-01-05 0.151886 0.346780 0.768128 1.750321 4.006818 8.993795 21.014193
2025-01-12 0.133639 0.314898 0.719156 1.691730 3.999401 9.265457 22.383621
2025-01-19 0.118246 0.287216 0.675529 1.638591 3.995862 9.543767 23.810290
2025-01-26 0.109966 0.275124 0.665918 1.664301 4.183269 10.292995 26.499322
2025-02-02 0.107969 0.278065 0.692210 1.781432 4.612483 11.684884 31.024429
2025-02-09 0.102534 0.271531 0.694473 1.838394 4.897972 12.761826 34.906063
2025-02-16 0.095215 0.259021 0.679995 1.849768 5.066202 13.563532 38.180127
2025-02-23 0.087385 0.243973 0.656845 1.834452 5.160132 14.182646 41.048084
2025-03-02 0.080610 0.230828 0.636924 1.825074 5.269182 14.858435 44.187073
2025-03-09 0.075602 0.221921 0.627273 1.843222 5.459170 15.786112 48.212620